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KMC vs Mashujaa — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

KMC
KMC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mashujaa
Mashujaa
12/12/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 14Azam Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

KMC32%
×Draw31%
Mashujaa37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KMC
0.96
Mashujaa
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 22 away

creates per match

KMC
0.75
Mashujaa
0.59

allows per match

KMC
1.50
Mashujaa
1.18

finishing

KMC+0.00on par
Mashujaa+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KMC ↓

Mashujaa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

KMC or draw
63%
KMC or Mashujaa
69%
Draw or Mashujaa
68%

Winning margin

KMC wins by 2+
12%
Mashujaa wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

KMC 1+ goals
62%
KMC 2+ goals
25%
KMC 3+ goals
7%
Mashujaa 1+ goals
65%
Mashujaa 2+ goals
28%
Mashujaa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

KMC (draw refunded)
47%
Mashujaa (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KMC at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 24 matches

Mashujaa away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KMC attack 0.75 + Mashujaa defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.96

Mashujaa attack 0.59 + KMC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

KMC scores more
32%
level
31%
Mashujaa scores more
37%

Mashujaa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mashujaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

KMC 0 – 0 Mashujaa

KMC and Mashujaa drew 0-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on December 12, 2024.

The match was played at Azam Complex Stadium in Mbagala.