Mashujaa 3–0 Fountain Gate: Result & Stats

Mashujaa

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fountain Gate

S. Rashidi 77'

I. Stambuli 49'

J. Kibaya 32'

4/5/2025

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 25Lake Tanganyika Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Mashujaa50%

×Draw31%

Fountain Gate19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MashujaaExpected goals in this matchFountain Gate

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.59

Mashujaa

1.18

Fountain Gate

0.59

Mashujaa creates 100% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

1.11

creates per match

0.63

0.56

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Mashujaa

1.11

Fountain Gate

0.63

allows per match

Mashujaa

0.56

Fountain Gate

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mashujaa+0.00on par

Fountain Gate+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mashujaa ↓

Fountain Gate →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Mashujaa or draw

81%

Mashujaa or Fountain Gate

69%

Draw or Fountain Gate

50%

Winning margin

Mashujaa wins by 2+

22%

Fountain Gate wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Mashujaa 1+ goals

69%

Mashujaa 2+ goals

33%

Mashujaa 3+ goals

12%

Fountain Gate 1+ goals

45%

Fountain Gate 2+ goals

12%

Fountain Gate 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Mashujaa (draw refunded)

73%

Fountain Gate (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mashujaa at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Fountain Gate away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mashujaa attack 1.11 + Fountain Gate defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Fountain Gate attack 0.63 + Mashujaa defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mashujaa scores more

50%

level

31%

Fountain Gate scores more

19%

Mashujaa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mashujaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

J. Kibaya

49'

I. Stambuli

77'

S. Rashidi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff