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Fountain Gate vs Mashujaa — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Fountain Gate
Fountain Gate
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mashujaa
Mashujaa
Unknown 51'
4/21/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 24CCM Kirumba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Fountain Gate27%
×Draw31%
Mashujaa42%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fountain Gate
0.83
Mashujaa
1.11

Mashujaa creates 34% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Fountain Gate
0.89
Mashujaa
0.44

allows per match

Fountain Gate
1.78
Mashujaa
0.78

finishing

Fountain Gate+0.00on par
Mashujaa+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fountain Gate ↓

Mashujaa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–116%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Fountain Gate or draw
58%
Fountain Gate or Mashujaa
69%
Draw or Mashujaa
73%

Winning margin

Fountain Gate wins by 2+
9%
Mashujaa wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Fountain Gate 1+ goals
56%
Fountain Gate 2+ goals
20%
Fountain Gate 3+ goals
5%
Mashujaa 1+ goals
67%
Mashujaa 2+ goals
30%
Mashujaa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fountain Gate (draw refunded)
39%
Mashujaa (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fountain Gate at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Mashujaa away — creates 0.44, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fountain Gate attack 0.89 + Mashujaa defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.83

Mashujaa attack 0.44 + Fountain Gate defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fountain Gate scores more
27%
level
31%
Mashujaa scores more
42%

Mashujaa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mashujaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Fountain Gate 0–0 Mashujaa

Fountain Gate and Mashujaa drew 0-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on April 21, 2024.

Goals: ? (51').

The match was played at CCM Kirumba Stadium in Mwanza.