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Mashujaa vs Dodoma Jiji — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Mashujaa
Mashujaa
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dodoma Jiji
Dodoma Jiji
D. Uromi 84'
R. Lusajo 47', 6'
5/28/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 30Lake Tanganyika Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Mashujaa56%
×Draw28%
Dodoma Jiji15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mashujaa
1.34
Dodoma Jiji
0.55

Mashujaa creates 144% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 22 away

creates per match

Mashujaa
0.91
Dodoma Jiji
0.59

allows per match

Mashujaa
0.52
Dodoma Jiji
1.77

finishing

Mashujaa+0.00on par
Dodoma Jiji+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mashujaa ↓

Dodoma Jiji →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mashujaa or draw
85%
Mashujaa or Dodoma Jiji
72%
Draw or Dodoma Jiji
44%

Winning margin

Mashujaa wins by 2+
28%
Dodoma Jiji wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Mashujaa 1+ goals
74%
Mashujaa 2+ goals
39%
Mashujaa 3+ goals
15%
Dodoma Jiji 1+ goals
42%
Dodoma Jiji 2+ goals
11%
Dodoma Jiji 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Mashujaa (draw refunded)
79%
Dodoma Jiji (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mashujaa at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.52 · 23 matches

Dodoma Jiji away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.77 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mashujaa attack 0.91 + Dodoma Jiji defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.34

Dodoma Jiji attack 0.59 + Mashujaa defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Mashujaa scores more
56%
level
28%
Dodoma Jiji scores more
15%

Mashujaa at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mashujaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
R. Lusajo
47'
R. Lusajo
84'
D. Uromi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Mashujaa 3–0 Dodoma Jiji

Mashujaa beat Dodoma Jiji 3-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on May 28, 2024.

Goals: R. Lusajo (6', 47'), D. Uromi (84').

The match was played at Lake Tanganyika Stadium in Kigoma.