Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dodoma Jiji vs Mashujaa — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Dodoma Jiji
Dodoma Jiji
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Mashujaa
Mashujaa
Z. Sereri 83'
H. Lulihoshi 15'
D. Mwana 12'
C. Ngushi 90+3'
12/28/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 16Jamhuri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Dodoma Jiji47%
×Draw31%
Mashujaa22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dodoma Jiji
1.17
Mashujaa
0.71

Dodoma Jiji creates 65% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 22 away

creates per match

Dodoma Jiji
1.17
Mashujaa
0.59

allows per match

Dodoma Jiji
0.83
Mashujaa
1.18

finishing

Dodoma Jiji+0.00on par
Mashujaa+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dodoma Jiji ↓

Mashujaa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Dodoma Jiji or draw
78%
Dodoma Jiji or Mashujaa
69%
Draw or Mashujaa
53%

Winning margin

Dodoma Jiji wins by 2+
20%
Mashujaa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dodoma Jiji 1+ goals
69%
Dodoma Jiji 2+ goals
33%
Dodoma Jiji 3+ goals
11%
Mashujaa 1+ goals
51%
Mashujaa 2+ goals
16%
Mashujaa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dodoma Jiji (draw refunded)
68%
Mashujaa (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dodoma Jiji at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 24 matches

Mashujaa away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dodoma Jiji attack 1.17 + Mashujaa defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Mashujaa attack 0.59 + Dodoma Jiji defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dodoma Jiji scores more
47%
level
31%
Mashujaa scores more
22%

Dodoma Jiji at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dodoma Jiji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
D. Mwana
15'
H. Lulihoshi
83'
Z. Sereri
90+3'
C. Ngushi↳ A. Zakaria

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dodoma Jiji vs Mashujaa

Dodoma Jiji beat Mashujaa 3-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on December 28, 2024.

Goals: D. Mwana (12'), H. Lulihoshi (15'), Z. Sereri (83'), C. Ngushi (90+3').

The match was played at Jamhuri Stadium in Dodoma.