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Mashujaa vs Coastal Union — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Mashujaa
Mashujaa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Coastal Union
Coastal Union
2/11/2025Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 18Lake Tanganyika Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Mashujaa46%
×Draw32%
Coastal Union21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mashujaa
1.09
Coastal Union
0.64

Mashujaa creates 70% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 25 away

creates per match

Mashujaa
0.91
Coastal Union
0.76

allows per match

Mashujaa
0.52
Coastal Union
1.28

finishing

Mashujaa+0.00on par
Coastal Union+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mashujaa ↓

Coastal Union →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Mashujaa or draw
79%
Mashujaa or Coastal Union
68%
Draw or Coastal Union
54%

Winning margin

Mashujaa wins by 2+
19%
Coastal Union wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mashujaa 1+ goals
66%
Mashujaa 2+ goals
30%
Mashujaa 3+ goals
10%
Coastal Union 1+ goals
47%
Coastal Union 2+ goals
14%
Coastal Union 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Mashujaa (draw refunded)
68%
Coastal Union (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mashujaa at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.52 · 23 matches

Coastal Union away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mashujaa attack 0.91 + Coastal Union defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.09

Coastal Union attack 0.76 + Mashujaa defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mashujaa scores more
46%
level
32%
Coastal Union scores more
21%

Mashujaa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mashujaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mashujaa vs Coastal Union

Mashujaa and Coastal Union drew 0-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on February 11, 2025.

The match was played at Lake Tanganyika Stadium in Kigoma.