Coastal Union 1–0 Mashujaa: Result & Stats

Coastal Union

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mashujaa

M. Maulid 66'

5/24/2026

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 25Mkwakwani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Coastal Union32%

×Draw32%

Mashujaa36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coastal UnionExpected goals in this matchMashujaa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

0.96

Coastal Union

0.89

Mashujaa

0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

0.77

creates per match

0.69

1.23

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Coastal Union

0.77

Mashujaa

0.69

allows per match

Coastal Union

1.23

Mashujaa

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coastal Union+0.00on par

Mashujaa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coastal Union ↓

Mashujaa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Coastal Union or draw

64%

Coastal Union or Mashujaa

68%

Draw or Mashujaa

68%

Winning margin

Coastal Union wins by 2+

11%

Mashujaa wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Coastal Union 1+ goals

59%

Coastal Union 2+ goals

22%

Coastal Union 3+ goals

6%

Mashujaa 1+ goals

62%

Mashujaa 2+ goals

25%

Mashujaa 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Coastal Union (draw refunded)

47%

Mashujaa (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coastal Union at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Mashujaa away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coastal Union attack 0.77 + Mashujaa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Mashujaa attack 0.69 + Coastal Union defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Coastal Union scores more

32%

level

32%

Mashujaa scores more

36%

Mashujaa at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Mashujaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

M. Salum

21'

K. Yusuph

41'

C. Mhagama← K. Yusuph

44'

L. Kanyonga

56'

M. Maulid← T. Ulimwengu

56'

M. Mwamita← S. Kichuya

62'

66'

M. Maulid

68'

72'

A. Bakari

72'

A. Bakari

78'

A. Rasimos

Coastal

Mashujaa

35

4

20

25

33

▼

11

14

27

37

7

66

18

3

5

26

50

16

17

19

24

▼

Kichuya

34

Mwanza

12

▼

Ulimwengu

56'▲M. Maulid←▼T. Ulimwengu

56'▲M. Mwamita←▼S. Kichuya

Coastal Union substitutes

31Maseke40Mwakisiki2William42Abdallah13Gradi28Mnaki9Maulid10Makambo14Mwamita

41'▲C. Mhagama←▼K. Yusuph

Mashujaa substitutes

6Mtuwi26Magingi19Kibaya28Uromi67Bwenzi9Juma10Lyanga12Abdallah22Mhagama

Match Recap: Coastal Union vs Mashujaa

Coastal Union beat Mashujaa 1-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on May 24, 2026.

Goals: M. Maulid (66').

The match was played at Mkwakwani Stadium in Tanga.

Coastal Union vs Mashujaa — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Coastal Union vs Mashujaa