Masafi 3–2 Dibba Al Hisn: Result & Stats

Masafi

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Dibba Al Hisn

I. Emejero 90+1'

V. Bacabal 68', 44'

B. Dembele 83'

Claudio Maradona 75'

11/18/2023

Division 1 · Round 9Masafi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Masafi27%

×Draw25%

Dibba Al Hisn49%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MasafiExpected goals in this matchDibba Al Hisn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.62

Masafi

1.13

Dibba Al Hisn

1.62

Dibba Al Hisn creates 43% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 18 away

1.32

creates per match

1.89

1.35

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Masafi

1.32

Dibba Al Hisn

1.89

allows per match

Masafi

1.35

Dibba Al Hisn

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Masafi+0.00on par

Dibba Al Hisn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Masafi ↓

Dibba Al Hisn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Masafi or draw

51%

Masafi or Dibba Al Hisn

75%

Draw or Dibba Al Hisn

73%

Winning margin

Masafi wins by 2+

10%

Dibba Al Hisn wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Masafi 1+ goals

68%

Masafi 2+ goals

31%

Masafi 3+ goals

11%

Dibba Al Hisn 1+ goals

80%

Dibba Al Hisn 2+ goals

48%

Dibba Al Hisn 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Masafi (draw refunded)

35%

Dibba Al Hisn (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Masafi at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

Dibba Al Hisn away — creates 1.89, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Masafi attack 1.32 + Dibba Al Hisn defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.13

Dibba Al Hisn attack 1.89 + Masafi defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Masafi scores more

27%

level

25%

Dibba Al Hisn scores more

49%

Dibba Al Hisn at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dibba Al Hisn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

V. Bacabal

68'

V. Bacabal

75'

Claudio Maradona

83'

B. Dembele

90+1'

I. Emejero

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff