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Masafi vs Al Urooba — Division 1 2025

Masafi
Masafi
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Urooba
Al Urooba
2/3/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 19Masafi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Masafi27%
×Draw29%
Al Urooba45%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Masafi
0.92
Al Urooba
1.28

Al Urooba creates 39% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 16 away

creates per match

Masafi
1.34
Al Urooba
1.19

allows per match

Masafi
1.38
Al Urooba
0.50

finishing

Masafi+0.00on par
Al Urooba+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Masafi ↓

Al Urooba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Masafi or draw
55%
Masafi or Al Urooba
71%
Draw or Al Urooba
73%

Winning margin

Masafi wins by 2+
9%
Al Urooba wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Masafi 1+ goals
60%
Masafi 2+ goals
23%
Masafi 3+ goals
7%
Al Urooba 1+ goals
72%
Al Urooba 2+ goals
37%
Al Urooba 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Masafi (draw refunded)
37%
Al Urooba (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Masafi at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.38 · 29 matches

Al Urooba away — creates 1.19, concedes 0.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Masafi attack 1.34 + Al Urooba defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.92

Al Urooba attack 1.19 + Masafi defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Masafi scores more
27%
level
29%
Al Urooba scores more
45%

Al Urooba at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al Urooba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Masafi vs Al Urooba

Masafi and Al Urooba drew 0-0 in Division 1 on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Masafi Stadium in Masafi.