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Al Urooba vs Masafi — Division 1 2025

Al Urooba
Al Urooba
FT
3 – 0
Masafi
Masafi
F. Sakhi 75', 67'
S. Obaid 61'
4/2/2021Division 1Division 1 · Round 19Al-Oruba Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al Urooba53%
×Draw24%
Masafi22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Urooba
1.69
Masafi
1.00

Al Urooba creates 69% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Al Urooba
1.71
Masafi
1.24

allows per match

Al Urooba
0.76
Masafi
1.68

finishing

Al Urooba+0.00on par
Masafi+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Urooba ↓

Masafi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Al Urooba or draw
78%
Al Urooba or Masafi
76%
Draw or Masafi
47%

Winning margin

Al Urooba wins by 2+
29%
Masafi wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al Urooba 1+ goals
82%
Al Urooba 2+ goals
50%
Al Urooba 3+ goals
24%
Masafi 1+ goals
63%
Masafi 2+ goals
26%
Masafi 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Urooba (draw refunded)
71%
Masafi (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Urooba at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Masafi away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Urooba attack 1.71 + Masafi defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.69

Masafi attack 1.24 + Al Urooba defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Al Urooba scores more
53%
level
24%
Masafi scores more
22%

Al Urooba at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Al Urooba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'
S. Obaid
67'
F. Sakhi
75'
F. Sakhi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Urooba vs Masafi

Al Urooba beat Masafi 3-0 in Division 1 on April 2, 2021.

Goals: S. Obaid (61'), F. Sakhi (67', 75').

The match was played at Al-Oruba Club Stadium in Mirbih / Murbah.