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Masafi vs Al-Dhafra — Division 1 2024

Masafi
Masafi
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Al-Dhafra
Al-Dhafra
S. Rashed 59'
A. Radovanovic 34'
I. M. Al Hammadi 85'
B. Afobe 65'
A. Junior 40'
M. Al Harbi 7'
10/8/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 5Masafi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Masafi28%
×Draw26%
Al-Dhafra46%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Masafi
1.09
Al-Dhafra
1.48

Al-Dhafra creates 36% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 15 away

creates per match

Masafi
1.32
Al-Dhafra
1.60

allows per match

Masafi
1.35
Al-Dhafra
0.87

finishing

Masafi+0.00on par
Al-Dhafra+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Masafi ↓

Al-Dhafra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Masafi or draw
54%
Masafi or Al-Dhafra
74%
Draw or Al-Dhafra
72%

Winning margin

Masafi wins by 2+
11%
Al-Dhafra wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Masafi 1+ goals
66%
Masafi 2+ goals
30%
Masafi 3+ goals
10%
Al-Dhafra 1+ goals
77%
Al-Dhafra 2+ goals
43%
Al-Dhafra 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Masafi (draw refunded)
38%
Al-Dhafra (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Masafi at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

Al-Dhafra away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Masafi attack 1.32 + Al-Dhafra defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.09

Al-Dhafra attack 1.60 + Masafi defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Masafi scores more
28%
level
26%
Al-Dhafra scores more
46%

Al-Dhafra at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al-Dhafra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
M. Al Harbi
34'
A. Radovanovic
40'
A. Junior
59'
S. Rashed
65'
B. Afobe
85'
I. M. Al Hammadi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Masafi vs Al-Dhafra

Al-Dhafra beat Masafi 4-2 in Division 1 on October 8, 2023.

Goals: M. Al Harbi (7'), A. Radovanovic (34'), A. Junior (40'), S. Rashed (59'), B. Afobe (65'), I. M. Al Hammadi (85').

The match was played at Masafi Stadium in Masafi.