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Al-Dhafra vs Masafi — Division 1 2025

Al-Dhafra
Al-Dhafra
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Masafi
Masafi
P. Pavlov 25'
I. James 39'
L. Monyuytaah 37'
2/23/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 22Al Dhafra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Al-Dhafra47%
×Draw24%
Masafi28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Dhafra
1.64
Masafi
1.22

Al-Dhafra creates 34% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 34 away

creates per match

Al-Dhafra
1.60
Masafi
1.24

allows per match

Al-Dhafra
1.20
Masafi
1.68

finishing

Al-Dhafra+0.00on par
Masafi+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Dhafra ↓

Masafi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al-Dhafra or draw
72%
Al-Dhafra or Masafi
76%
Draw or Masafi
53%

Winning margin

Al-Dhafra wins by 2+
25%
Masafi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Al-Dhafra 1+ goals
81%
Al-Dhafra 2+ goals
49%
Al-Dhafra 3+ goals
23%
Masafi 1+ goals
70%
Masafi 2+ goals
34%
Masafi 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Al-Dhafra (draw refunded)
62%
Masafi (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Dhafra at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Masafi away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Dhafra attack 1.60 + Masafi defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.64

Masafi attack 1.24 + Al-Dhafra defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al-Dhafra scores more
47%
level
24%
Masafi scores more
28%

Al-Dhafra at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al-Dhafra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
P. Pavlov
37'
L. Monyuytaah
39'
I. James

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Dhafra vs Masafi

Masafi beat Al-Dhafra 2-1 in Division 1 on February 23, 2024.

Goals: P. Pavlov (25'), L. Monyuytaah (37'), I. James (39').

The match was played at Al Dhafra Stadium in Madinat Zaid.