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Masafi vs Al Arabi — Division 1 2025

Masafi
Masafi
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Al Arabi
Al Arabi
Silvio Rodrigues 10'
P. Silva 76'
R. Alfalasi 61'
A. Eredo 8'
2/5/2022Division 1Division 1 · Round 18Masafi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Masafi32%
×Draw26%
Al Arabi42%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Masafi
1.22
Al Arabi
1.44

Al Arabi creates 18% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 17 away

creates per match

Masafi
1.32
Al Arabi
1.53

allows per match

Masafi
1.35
Al Arabi
1.12

finishing

Masafi+0.00on par
Al Arabi+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Masafi ↓

Al Arabi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Masafi or draw
58%
Masafi or Al Arabi
74%
Draw or Al Arabi
68%

Winning margin

Masafi wins by 2+
13%
Al Arabi wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Masafi 1+ goals
70%
Masafi 2+ goals
34%
Masafi 3+ goals
12%
Al Arabi 1+ goals
76%
Al Arabi 2+ goals
42%
Al Arabi 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Masafi (draw refunded)
43%
Al Arabi (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Masafi at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

Al Arabi away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Masafi attack 1.32 + Al Arabi defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.22

Al Arabi attack 1.53 + Masafi defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Masafi scores more
32%
level
26%
Al Arabi scores more
42%

Al Arabi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Arabi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
A. Eredo
10'
Silvio Rodrigues
61'
R. Alfalasi
76'
P. Silva

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Masafi vs Al Arabi

Al Arabi beat Masafi 3-1 in Division 1 on February 5, 2022.

Goals: A. Eredo (8'), Silvio Rodrigues (10'), R. Alfalasi (61'), P. Silva (76').

The match was played at Masafi Stadium in Masafi.