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Al Arabi vs Masafi — Division 1 2025

Al Arabi
Al Arabi
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Masafi
Masafi
I. El Adoua 44'
R. Abdulla 45+2'
M. Obekop 18'
10/16/2022Division 1Division 1 · Round 6Al Arabi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Al Arabi46%
×Draw24%
Masafi30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Arabi
1.62
Masafi
1.27

Al Arabi creates 28% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 34 away

creates per match

Al Arabi
1.56
Masafi
1.24

allows per match

Al Arabi
1.31
Masafi
1.68

finishing

Al Arabi+0.00on par
Masafi+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Arabi ↓

Masafi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Al Arabi or draw
70%
Al Arabi or Masafi
76%
Draw or Masafi
54%

Winning margin

Al Arabi wins by 2+
23%
Masafi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Al Arabi 1+ goals
80%
Al Arabi 2+ goals
48%
Al Arabi 3+ goals
22%
Masafi 1+ goals
72%
Masafi 2+ goals
36%
Masafi 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Al Arabi (draw refunded)
60%
Masafi (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Arabi at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

Masafi away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Arabi attack 1.56 + Masafi defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.62

Masafi attack 1.24 + Al Arabi defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Arabi scores more
46%
level
24%
Masafi scores more
30%

Al Arabi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Arabi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
M. Obekop
44'
I. El Adoua
45+2'
R. Abdulla

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Arabi vs Masafi

Masafi beat Al Arabi 2-1 in Division 1 on October 16, 2022.

Goals: M. Obekop (18'), I. El Adoua (44'), R. Abdulla (45+2').

The match was played at Al Arabi Stadium in Umm al-Quwain.