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Marz vs Klingenbach — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Marz
Marz
FT
1 – 1
Klingenbach
Klingenbach
8/18/2023Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 3Sportplatz Marz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Marz30%
×Draw24%
Klingenbach46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marz
1.33
Klingenbach
1.71

Klingenbach creates 29% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 86 away

creates per match

Marz
0.87
Klingenbach
1.29

allows per match

Marz
2.13
Klingenbach
1.80

finishing

Marz+0.00on par
Klingenbach+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marz ↓

Klingenbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Marz or draw
54%
Marz or Klingenbach
76%
Draw or Klingenbach
70%

Winning margin

Marz wins by 2+
13%
Klingenbach wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Marz 1+ goals
74%
Marz 2+ goals
38%
Marz 3+ goals
15%
Klingenbach 1+ goals
82%
Klingenbach 2+ goals
51%
Klingenbach 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Marz (draw refunded)
39%
Klingenbach (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marz at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

Klingenbach away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.80 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marz attack 0.87 + Klingenbach defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.33

Klingenbach attack 1.29 + Marz defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Marz scores more
30%
level
24%
Klingenbach scores more
46%

Klingenbach at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Klingenbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marz vs Klingenbach

Marz and Klingenbach drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Burgenland on August 18, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Marz in Marz.