Klingenbach 0–0 Marz: Result & Stats

Klingenbach

FT

0 – 0

Marz

3/16/2024

Landesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 18Grenzstadion Klingenbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Klingenbach53%

×Draw24%

Marz23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KlingenbachExpected goals in this matchMarz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.09

Klingenbach

1.76

Marz

1.09

Klingenbach creates 61% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 14 away

1.59

creates per match

0.71

1.48

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Klingenbach

1.59

Marz

0.71

allows per match

Klingenbach

1.48

Marz

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Klingenbach+0.00on par

Marz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Klingenbach ↓

Marz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Klingenbach or draw

77%

Klingenbach or Marz

76%

Draw or Marz

47%

Winning margin

Klingenbach wins by 2+

29%

Marz wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Klingenbach 1+ goals

83%

Klingenbach 2+ goals

52%

Klingenbach 3+ goals

26%

Marz 1+ goals

66%

Marz 2+ goals

30%

Marz 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Klingenbach (draw refunded)

69%

Marz (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Klingenbach at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.48 · 85 matches

Marz away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Klingenbach attack 1.59 + Marz defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.76

Marz attack 0.71 + Klingenbach defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Klingenbach scores more

53%

level

24%

Marz scores more

23%

Klingenbach at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Klingenbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff