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Mārupe vs Smiltene — 1. Liga 2026

Mārupe
Mārupe
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Smiltene
Smiltene
10/6/20241. Liga1. Liga · Round 22Jaunmārupes stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Mārupe56%
×Draw22%
Smiltene22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mārupe
2.01
Smiltene
1.20

Mārupe creates 67% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 88 away

creates per match

Mārupe
1.38
Smiltene
1.31

allows per match

Mārupe
1.09
Smiltene
2.65

finishing

Mārupe+0.00on par
Smiltene+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mārupe ↓

Smiltene →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Mārupe or draw
78%
Mārupe or Smiltene
78%
Draw or Smiltene
44%

Winning margin

Mārupe wins by 2+
33%
Smiltene wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mārupe 1+ goals
87%
Mārupe 2+ goals
59%
Mārupe 3+ goals
32%
Smiltene 1+ goals
70%
Smiltene 2+ goals
34%
Smiltene 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Mārupe (draw refunded)
71%
Smiltene (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mārupe at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.09 · 32 matches

Smiltene away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.65 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mārupe attack 1.38 + Smiltene defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.01

Smiltene attack 1.31 + Mārupe defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Mārupe scores more
56%
level
22%
Smiltene scores more
22%

Mārupe at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mārupe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mārupe vs Smiltene

Mārupe and Smiltene drew 0-0 in 1. Liga on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Jaunmārupes stadions in Jaunmārupe.