Mārupe 3–1 Smiltene: Result & Stats | Cup

Mārupe

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Smiltene

6/22/2024

Cup · Play-off RoundJaunmārupes stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Mārupe21%

×Draw18%

Smiltene61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MārupeExpected goals in this matchSmiltene

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

2.65

Mārupe

1.50

Smiltene

2.65

Smiltene creates 77% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

1.44

creates per match

3.29

2.00

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Mārupe

1.44

Smiltene

3.29

allows per match

Mārupe

2.00

Smiltene

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mārupe+0.00on par

Smiltene+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mārupe ↓

Smiltene →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Mārupe or draw

39%

Mārupe or Smiltene

82%

Draw or Smiltene

79%

Winning margin

Mārupe wins by 2+

9%

Smiltene wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Mārupe 1+ goals

78%

Mārupe 2+ goals

44%

Mārupe 3+ goals

19%

Smiltene 1+ goals

93%

Smiltene 2+ goals

74%

Smiltene 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

Mārupe (draw refunded)

25%

Smiltene (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mārupe at home — creates 1.44, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

Smiltene away — creates 3.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mārupe attack 1.44 + Smiltene defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.50

Smiltene attack 3.29 + Mārupe defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Mārupe scores more

21%

level

18%

Smiltene scores more

61%

Smiltene at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Smiltene will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff