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Marumo Gallants vs Stellenbosch — Premier Soccer League 2018

Marumo Gallants
Marumo Gallants
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stellenbosch
Stellenbosch
8/6/2022Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 1Peter Mokaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Marumo Gallants32%
×Draw31%
Stellenbosch36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marumo Gallants
0.94
Stellenbosch
1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 104 away

creates per match

Marumo Gallants
0.86
Stellenbosch
1.01

allows per match

Marumo Gallants
1.01
Stellenbosch
1.01

finishing

Marumo Gallants+0.00on par
Stellenbosch+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marumo Gallants ↓

Stellenbosch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Marumo Gallants or draw
64%
Marumo Gallants or Stellenbosch
69%
Draw or Stellenbosch
68%

Winning margin

Marumo Gallants wins by 2+
12%
Stellenbosch wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Marumo Gallants 1+ goals
61%
Marumo Gallants 2+ goals
24%
Marumo Gallants 3+ goals
7%
Stellenbosch 1+ goals
64%
Stellenbosch 2+ goals
27%
Stellenbosch 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Marumo Gallants (draw refunded)
47%
Stellenbosch (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marumo Gallants at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Stellenbosch away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.01 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marumo Gallants attack 0.86 + Stellenbosch defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.94

Stellenbosch attack 1.01 + Marumo Gallants defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Marumo Gallants scores more
32%
level
31%
Stellenbosch scores more
36%

Stellenbosch at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Stellenbosch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
Sihle Nduli
46'
T. Khiba← L. Mohomi
55'
J. Malongoane← S. Sibeko
55'
C. Ngema← M. Mphambaniso
59'
A. Van Wyk← D. Titus
59'
J. Moseamedi← G. Hahn
69'
J. Adams← S. Nduli
72'
Thato Khiba
75'
D. Manaka← S. Kumalo
83'
S. Mngomezulu← J. Mendieta

Statistics

MarumoStellenbosch
Overview
0Corners0
Discipline
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Marumo Gallants vs Stellenbosch

Marumo Gallants and Stellenbosch drew 0-0 in Premier Soccer League on August 6, 2022.

The match was played at Peter Mokaba Stadium in Pietersburg.