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Marumo Gallants vs Durban City — Premier Soccer League 2018

Marumo Gallants
Marumo Gallants
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Durban City
Durban City
3/1/2026Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 19Thohoyandou Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Marumo Gallants37%
×Draw32%
Durban City31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marumo Gallants
0.99
Durban City
0.87

Marumo Gallants creates 14% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 15 away

creates per match

Marumo Gallants
0.86
Durban City
0.73

allows per match

Marumo Gallants
1.01
Durban City
1.13

finishing

Marumo Gallants+0.00on par
Durban City+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marumo Gallants ↓

Durban City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Marumo Gallants or draw
69%
Marumo Gallants or Durban City
68%
Draw or Durban City
63%

Winning margin

Marumo Gallants wins by 2+
14%
Durban City wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Marumo Gallants 1+ goals
63%
Marumo Gallants 2+ goals
26%
Marumo Gallants 3+ goals
8%
Durban City 1+ goals
58%
Durban City 2+ goals
22%
Durban City 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Marumo Gallants (draw refunded)
55%
Durban City (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marumo Gallants at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Durban City away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marumo Gallants attack 0.86 + Durban City defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.99

Durban City attack 0.73 + Marumo Gallants defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Marumo Gallants scores more
37%
level
32%
Durban City scores more
31%

Marumo Gallants at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Marumo Gallants will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marumo Gallants vs Durban City

Durban City beat Marumo Gallants 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on March 1, 2026.

The match was played at Thohoyandou Stadium in Thohoyandou.