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Durban City vs Marumo Gallants — Premier Soccer League 2018

Durban City
Durban City
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Marumo Gallants
Marumo Gallants
11/5/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 12Chatsworth Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Durban City49%
×Draw31%
Marumo Gallants21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Durban City
1.19
Marumo Gallants
0.66

Durban City creates 80% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 76 away

creates per match

Durban City
0.93
Marumo Gallants
0.72

allows per match

Durban City
0.60
Marumo Gallants
1.45

finishing

Durban City+0.00on par
Marumo Gallants+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Durban City ↓

Marumo Gallants →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Durban City or draw
79%
Durban City or Marumo Gallants
69%
Draw or Marumo Gallants
51%

Winning margin

Durban City wins by 2+
22%
Marumo Gallants wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Durban City 1+ goals
70%
Durban City 2+ goals
33%
Durban City 3+ goals
12%
Marumo Gallants 1+ goals
48%
Marumo Gallants 2+ goals
14%
Marumo Gallants 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Durban City (draw refunded)
70%
Marumo Gallants (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Durban City at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Marumo Gallants away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.45 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Durban City attack 0.93 + Marumo Gallants defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.19

Marumo Gallants attack 0.72 + Durban City defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Durban City scores more
49%
level
31%
Marumo Gallants scores more
21%

Durban City at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Durban City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Durban City 1–0 Marumo Gallants

Durban City beat Marumo Gallants 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on November 5, 2025.

The match was played at Chatsworth Stadium in Chatsworth.