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Marumo Gallants vs Cape Town City — Premier Soccer League 2018

Marumo Gallants
Marumo Gallants
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cape Town City
Cape Town City
1/11/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 10Dr. Petrus Molemela Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Marumo Gallants36%
×Draw31%
Cape Town City34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marumo Gallants
1.02
Cape Town City
0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 109 away

creates per match

Marumo Gallants
0.86
Cape Town City
0.95

allows per match

Marumo Gallants
1.01
Cape Town City
1.19

finishing

Marumo Gallants+0.00on par
Cape Town City+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marumo Gallants ↓

Cape Town City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Marumo Gallants or draw
66%
Marumo Gallants or Cape Town City
69%
Draw or Cape Town City
64%

Winning margin

Marumo Gallants wins by 2+
14%
Cape Town City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Marumo Gallants 1+ goals
64%
Marumo Gallants 2+ goals
27%
Marumo Gallants 3+ goals
8%
Cape Town City 1+ goals
62%
Cape Town City 2+ goals
26%
Cape Town City 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Marumo Gallants (draw refunded)
52%
Cape Town City (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marumo Gallants at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Cape Town City away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.19 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marumo Gallants attack 0.86 + Cape Town City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.02

Cape Town City attack 0.95 + Marumo Gallants defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Marumo Gallants scores more
36%
level
31%
Cape Town City scores more
34%

Marumo Gallants at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Marumo Gallants will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Marumo Gallants vs Cape Town City

Marumo Gallants beat Cape Town City 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on January 11, 2025.

The match was played at Dr. Petrus Molemela Stadium in Bloemfontein, FS.