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Cape Town City vs Marumo Gallants — Premier Soccer League 2018

Cape Town City
Cape Town City
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Marumo Gallants
Marumo Gallants
3/15/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 18Athlone Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Cape Town City50%
×Draw28%
Marumo Gallants22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cape Town City
1.39
Marumo Gallants
0.83

Cape Town City creates 67% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 76 away

creates per match

Cape Town City
1.32
Marumo Gallants
0.72

allows per match

Cape Town City
0.94
Marumo Gallants
1.45

finishing

Cape Town City+0.00on par
Marumo Gallants+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cape Town City ↓

Marumo Gallants →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cape Town City or draw
78%
Cape Town City or Marumo Gallants
72%
Draw or Marumo Gallants
50%

Winning margin

Cape Town City wins by 2+
24%
Marumo Gallants wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cape Town City 1+ goals
75%
Cape Town City 2+ goals
40%
Cape Town City 3+ goals
16%
Marumo Gallants 1+ goals
56%
Marumo Gallants 2+ goals
20%
Marumo Gallants 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cape Town City (draw refunded)
69%
Marumo Gallants (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cape Town City at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.94 · 108 matches

Marumo Gallants away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.45 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cape Town City attack 1.32 + Marumo Gallants defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.39

Marumo Gallants attack 0.72 + Cape Town City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cape Town City scores more
50%
level
28%
Marumo Gallants scores more
22%

Cape Town City at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cape Town City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Cape Town City 0–1 Marumo Gallants

Marumo Gallants beat Cape Town City 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Athlone Stadium in Cape Town, WC.