Martos 3–0 Malaga City: Result & Stats

Martos

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Malaga City

3/23/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 27Estadio Chamorro Martinez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Martos53%

×Draw28%

Malaga City19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MartosExpected goals in this matchMalaga City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.72

Martos

1.39

Malaga City

0.72

Martos creates 93% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 49 away

0.82

creates per match

0.67

0.76

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Martos

0.82

Malaga City

0.67

allows per match

Martos

0.76

Malaga City

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Martos+0.00on par

Malaga City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martos ↓

Malaga City →

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Martos or draw

81%

Martos or Malaga City

72%

Draw or Malaga City

47%

Winning margin

Martos wins by 2+

26%

Malaga City wins by 2+

Team goals

Martos 1+ goals

75%

Martos 2+ goals

40%

Martos 3+ goals

16%

Malaga City 1+ goals

51%

Malaga City 2+ goals

16%

Malaga City 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Martos (draw refunded)

73%

Malaga City (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Martos at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.76 · 34 matches

Malaga City away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.96 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Martos attack 0.82 + Malaga City defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.39

Malaga City attack 0.67 + Martos defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Martos scores more

53%

level

28%

Malaga City scores more

19%

Martos at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Martos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff