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Malaga City vs Martos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Malaga City
Malaga City
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Martos
Martos
11/10/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 10Ciudad Deportiva Torremolinos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Malaga City44%
×Draw27%
Martos29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malaga City
1.41
Martos
1.10

Malaga City creates 28% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 34 away

creates per match

Malaga City
0.96
Martos
0.94

allows per match

Malaga City
1.27
Martos
1.85

finishing

Malaga City+0.00on par
Martos+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga City ↓

Martos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Malaga City or draw
71%
Malaga City or Martos
73%
Draw or Martos
56%

Winning margin

Malaga City wins by 2+
21%
Martos wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Malaga City 1+ goals
76%
Malaga City 2+ goals
41%
Malaga City 3+ goals
17%
Martos 1+ goals
67%
Martos 2+ goals
30%
Martos 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Malaga City (draw refunded)
60%
Martos (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga City at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

Martos away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.85 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga City attack 0.96 + Martos defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.41

Martos attack 0.94 + Malaga City defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Malaga City scores more
44%
level
27%
Martos scores more
29%

Malaga City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Malaga City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malaga City vs Martos

Malaga City beat Martos 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Torremolinos in Torremolinos.