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Martos vs El Ejido — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Martos
Martos
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
El Ejido
El Ejido
11/17/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 11Estadio Chamorro Martinez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Martos39%
×Draw30%
El Ejido31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Martos
1.13
El Ejido
0.96

Martos creates 18% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 49 away

creates per match

Martos
0.82
El Ejido
1.16

allows per match

Martos
0.76
El Ejido
1.43

finishing

Martos+0.00on par
El Ejido+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martos ↓

El Ejido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Martos or draw
69%
Martos or El Ejido
70%
Draw or El Ejido
61%

Winning margin

Martos wins by 2+
16%
El Ejido wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Martos 1+ goals
68%
Martos 2+ goals
31%
Martos 3+ goals
11%
El Ejido 1+ goals
62%
El Ejido 2+ goals
25%
El Ejido 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Martos (draw refunded)
56%
El Ejido (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Martos at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.76 · 34 matches

El Ejido away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Martos attack 0.82 + El Ejido defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.13

El Ejido attack 1.16 + Martos defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Martos scores more
39%
level
30%
El Ejido scores more
31%

Martos at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Martos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Martos 1–0 El Ejido

Martos beat El Ejido 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Chamorro Martinez in Martos.