El Ejido 2–3 Martos: Result & Stats

El Ejido

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Martos

3/30/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 28Estadio Municipal Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

El Ejido45%

×Draw25%

Martos29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

El EjidoExpected goals in this matchMartos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.17

El Ejido

1.52

Martos

1.17

El Ejido creates 30% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 34 away

1.19

creates per match

0.94

1.40

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

El Ejido

1.19

Martos

0.94

allows per match

El Ejido

1.40

Martos

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

El Ejido+0.00on par

Martos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Ejido ↓

Martos →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

El Ejido or draw

71%

El Ejido or Martos

75%

Draw or Martos

55%

Winning margin

El Ejido wins by 2+

23%

Martos wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

El Ejido 1+ goals

78%

El Ejido 2+ goals

45%

El Ejido 3+ goals

20%

Martos 1+ goals

69%

Martos 2+ goals

33%

Martos 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

El Ejido (draw refunded)

61%

Martos (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

El Ejido at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.40 · 48 matches

Martos away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.85 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

El Ejido attack 1.19 + Martos defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.52

Martos attack 0.94 + El Ejido defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

El Ejido scores more

45%

level

25%

Martos scores more

29%

El Ejido at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "El Ejido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff