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Martin Ledesma vs Guairena FC — Division Intermedia 2018

Martin Ledesma
Martin Ledesma
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Guairena FC
Guairena FC
8/18/2024Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 21Estadio Enrique Soler

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Martin Ledesma34%
×Draw30%
Guairena FC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Martin Ledesma
1.03
Guairena FC
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 66 away

creates per match

Martin Ledesma
0.98
Guairena FC
0.98

allows per match

Martin Ledesma
1.21
Guairena FC
1.08

finishing

Martin Ledesma+0.00on par
Guairena FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martin Ledesma ↓

Guairena FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Martin Ledesma or draw
63%
Martin Ledesma or Guairena FC
70%
Draw or Guairena FC
66%

Winning margin

Martin Ledesma wins by 2+
13%
Guairena FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Martin Ledesma 1+ goals
64%
Martin Ledesma 2+ goals
28%
Martin Ledesma 3+ goals
9%
Guairena FC 1+ goals
66%
Guairena FC 2+ goals
30%
Guairena FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Martin Ledesma (draw refunded)
48%
Guairena FC (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Martin Ledesma at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.21 · 63 matches

Guairena FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.08 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Martin Ledesma attack 0.98 + Guairena FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.03

Guairena FC attack 0.98 + Martin Ledesma defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Martin Ledesma scores more
34%
level
30%
Guairena FC scores more
37%

Guairena FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Guairena FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Martin Ledesma vs Guairena FC

Guairena FC beat Martin Ledesma 2-0 in Division Intermedia on August 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Enrique Soler in Capiatá.