Guairena FC 2–2 Martin Ledesma: Result & Stats

Guairena FC

FT

2 – 2

Martin Ledesma

3/18/2018

Division Intermedia · Round 1Estadio Parque del Guairá (Villarrica)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Guairena FC52%

×Draw27%

Martin Ledesma22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guairena FCExpected goals in this matchMartin Ledesma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.85

Guairena FC

1.47

Martin Ledesma

0.85

Guairena FC creates 73% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 61 away

1.60

creates per match

0.87

0.84

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Guairena FC

1.60

Martin Ledesma

0.87

allows per match

Guairena FC

0.84

Martin Ledesma

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guairena FC+0.00on par

Martin Ledesma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guairena FC ↓

Martin Ledesma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Guairena FC or draw

78%

Guairena FC or Martin Ledesma

73%

Draw or Martin Ledesma

48%

Winning margin

Guairena FC wins by 2+

26%

Martin Ledesma wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Guairena FC 1+ goals

77%

Guairena FC 2+ goals

43%

Guairena FC 3+ goals

18%

Martin Ledesma 1+ goals

57%

Martin Ledesma 2+ goals

21%

Martin Ledesma 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Guairena FC (draw refunded)

70%

Martin Ledesma (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guairena FC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

Martin Ledesma away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guairena FC attack 1.60 + Martin Ledesma defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.47

Martin Ledesma attack 0.87 + Guairena FC defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Guairena FC scores more

52%

level

27%

Martin Ledesma scores more

22%

Guairena FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Guairena FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff