Martin Ledesma 1–0 General Caballero

Martin Ledesma

FT

1 – 0

General Caballero

8/8/2018

Division Intermedia · Round 23Estadio Enrique Soler (Capiatá)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Martin Ledesma36%

×Draw27%

General Caballero37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Martin LedesmaExpected goals in this matchGeneral Caballero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.23

Martin Ledesma

1.20

General Caballero

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 53 away

0.98

creates per match

1.25

1.21

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Martin Ledesma

0.98

General Caballero

1.25

allows per match

Martin Ledesma

1.21

General Caballero

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Martin Ledesma+0.00on par

General Caballero+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martin Ledesma ↓

General Caballero →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Martin Ledesma or draw

63%

Martin Ledesma or General Caballero

73%

Draw or General Caballero

64%

Winning margin

Martin Ledesma wins by 2+

15%

General Caballero wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Martin Ledesma 1+ goals

70%

Martin Ledesma 2+ goals

34%

Martin Ledesma 3+ goals

12%

General Caballero 1+ goals

71%

General Caballero 2+ goals

35%

General Caballero 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Martin Ledesma (draw refunded)

49%

General Caballero (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Martin Ledesma at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.21 · 63 matches

General Caballero away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Martin Ledesma attack 0.98 + General Caballero defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.20

General Caballero attack 1.25 + Martin Ledesma defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Martin Ledesma scores more

36%

level

27%

General Caballero scores more

37%

General Caballero at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "General Caballero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff