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General Caballero vs Martin Ledesma — Division Intermedia 2018

General Caballero
General Caballero
FT
3 – 1
Martin Ledesma
Martin Ledesma
5/2/2018Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 8Estadio Hugo Bogado Vaceque (Asunción)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

General Caballero53%
×Draw24%
Martin Ledesma23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

General Caballero
1.68
Martin Ledesma
1.01

General Caballero creates 66% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 61 away

creates per match

General Caballero
2.02
Martin Ledesma
0.87

allows per match

General Caballero
1.16
Martin Ledesma
1.34

finishing

General Caballero+0.00on par
Martin Ledesma+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Caballero ↓

Martin Ledesma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

General Caballero or draw
77%
General Caballero or Martin Ledesma
76%
Draw or Martin Ledesma
47%

Winning margin

General Caballero wins by 2+
29%
Martin Ledesma wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

General Caballero 1+ goals
81%
General Caballero 2+ goals
50%
General Caballero 3+ goals
24%
Martin Ledesma 1+ goals
64%
Martin Ledesma 2+ goals
27%
Martin Ledesma 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

General Caballero (draw refunded)
70%
Martin Ledesma (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Caballero at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.16 · 55 matches

Martin Ledesma away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Caballero attack 2.02 + Martin Ledesma defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.68

Martin Ledesma attack 0.87 + General Caballero defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

General Caballero scores more
53%
level
24%
Martin Ledesma scores more
23%

General Caballero at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "General Caballero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: General Caballero vs Martin Ledesma

General Caballero beat Martin Ledesma 3-1 in Division Intermedia on May 2, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Hugo Bogado Vaceque (Asunción).