Martin Ledesma 0–1 Deportivo Liberacion

Martin Ledesma

FT

0 – 1

Deportivo Liberacion

7/22/2018

Division Intermedia · Round 20Estadio Enrique Soler (Capiatá)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Martin Ledesma41%

×Draw28%

Deportivo Liberacion31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Martin LedesmaExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Liberacion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.04

Martin Ledesma

1.25

Deportivo Liberacion

1.04

Martin Ledesma creates 20% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 15 away

0.98

creates per match

0.87

1.21

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Martin Ledesma

0.98

Deportivo Liberacion

0.87

allows per match

Martin Ledesma

1.21

Deportivo Liberacion

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Martin Ledesma+0.00on par

Deportivo Liberacion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martin Ledesma ↓

Deportivo Liberacion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Martin Ledesma or draw

69%

Martin Ledesma or Deportivo Liberacion

72%

Draw or Deportivo Liberacion

59%

Winning margin

Martin Ledesma wins by 2+

18%

Deportivo Liberacion wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Martin Ledesma 1+ goals

71%

Martin Ledesma 2+ goals

36%

Martin Ledesma 3+ goals

13%

Deportivo Liberacion 1+ goals

65%

Deportivo Liberacion 2+ goals

28%

Deportivo Liberacion 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Martin Ledesma (draw refunded)

57%

Deportivo Liberacion (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Martin Ledesma at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.21 · 63 matches

Deportivo Liberacion away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Martin Ledesma attack 0.98 + Deportivo Liberacion defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.25

Deportivo Liberacion attack 0.87 + Martin Ledesma defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Martin Ledesma scores more

41%

level

28%

Deportivo Liberacion scores more

31%

Martin Ledesma at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Martin Ledesma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff