Deportivo Liberacion 1–2 Martin Ledesma

Deportivo Liberacion

FT

1 – 2

Martin Ledesma

4/15/2018

Division Intermedia · Round 5Estadio Atanacio Villagra (Liberación)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Deportivo Liberacion44%

×Draw26%

Martin Ledesma30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo LiberacionExpected goals in this matchMartin Ledesma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.14

Deportivo Liberacion

1.44

Martin Ledesma

1.14

Deportivo Liberacion creates 26% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 61 away

1.53

creates per match

0.87

1.40

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Deportivo Liberacion

1.53

Martin Ledesma

0.87

allows per match

Deportivo Liberacion

1.40

Martin Ledesma

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Liberacion+0.00on par

Martin Ledesma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Liberacion ↓

Martin Ledesma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo Liberacion or draw

70%

Deportivo Liberacion or Martin Ledesma

74%

Draw or Martin Ledesma

56%

Winning margin

Deportivo Liberacion wins by 2+

21%

Martin Ledesma wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Deportivo Liberacion 1+ goals

76%

Deportivo Liberacion 2+ goals

42%

Deportivo Liberacion 3+ goals

18%

Martin Ledesma 1+ goals

68%

Martin Ledesma 2+ goals

32%

Martin Ledesma 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Liberacion (draw refunded)

59%

Martin Ledesma (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Liberacion at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Martin Ledesma away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Liberacion attack 1.53 + Martin Ledesma defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.44

Martin Ledesma attack 0.87 + Deportivo Liberacion defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Deportivo Liberacion scores more

44%

level

26%

Martin Ledesma scores more

30%

Deportivo Liberacion at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Deportivo Liberacion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff