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Martin Ledesma vs Atlético Tembetary — Division Intermedia 2018

Martin Ledesma
Martin Ledesma
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Atlético Tembetary
Atlético Tembetary
5/26/2024Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 9Estadio Enrique Soler

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Martin Ledesma27%
×Draw27%
Atlético Tembetary46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Martin Ledesma
1.01
Atlético Tembetary
1.39

Atlético Tembetary creates 38% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 23 away

creates per match

Martin Ledesma
0.98
Atlético Tembetary
1.57

allows per match

Martin Ledesma
1.21
Atlético Tembetary
1.04

finishing

Martin Ledesma+0.00on par
Atlético Tembetary+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martin Ledesma ↓

Atlético Tembetary →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Martin Ledesma or draw
54%
Martin Ledesma or Atlético Tembetary
73%
Draw or Atlético Tembetary
73%

Winning margin

Martin Ledesma wins by 2+
10%
Atlético Tembetary wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Martin Ledesma 1+ goals
64%
Martin Ledesma 2+ goals
27%
Martin Ledesma 3+ goals
8%
Atlético Tembetary 1+ goals
75%
Atlético Tembetary 2+ goals
40%
Atlético Tembetary 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Martin Ledesma (draw refunded)
37%
Atlético Tembetary (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Martin Ledesma at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.21 · 63 matches

Atlético Tembetary away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Martin Ledesma attack 0.98 + Atlético Tembetary defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.01

Atlético Tembetary attack 1.57 + Martin Ledesma defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Martin Ledesma scores more
27%
level
27%
Atlético Tembetary scores more
46%

Atlético Tembetary at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atlético Tembetary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Martin Ledesma 0–4 Atlético Tembetary

Atlético Tembetary beat Martin Ledesma 4-0 in Division Intermedia on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Enrique Soler in Capiatá.