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Atlético Tembetary vs Martin Ledesma — Division Intermedia 2018

Atlético Tembetary
Atlético Tembetary
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Martin Ledesma
Martin Ledesma
9/1/2024Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 24Estadio Luís Alfonso Giagni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Atlético Tembetary50%
×Draw27%
Martin Ledesma24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Tembetary
1.46
Martin Ledesma
0.91

Atlético Tembetary creates 60% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 61 away

creates per match

Atlético Tembetary
1.57
Martin Ledesma
0.87

allows per match

Atlético Tembetary
0.95
Martin Ledesma
1.34

finishing

Atlético Tembetary+0.00on par
Martin Ledesma+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tembetary ↓

Martin Ledesma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atlético Tembetary or draw
76%
Atlético Tembetary or Martin Ledesma
73%
Draw or Martin Ledesma
50%

Winning margin

Atlético Tembetary wins by 2+
25%
Martin Ledesma wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Atlético Tembetary 1+ goals
77%
Atlético Tembetary 2+ goals
43%
Atlético Tembetary 3+ goals
18%
Martin Ledesma 1+ goals
60%
Martin Ledesma 2+ goals
23%
Martin Ledesma 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Atlético Tembetary (draw refunded)
68%
Martin Ledesma (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tembetary at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

Martin Ledesma away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tembetary attack 1.57 + Martin Ledesma defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.46

Martin Ledesma attack 0.87 + Atlético Tembetary defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Atlético Tembetary scores more
50%
level
27%
Martin Ledesma scores more
24%

Atlético Tembetary at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Atlético Tembetary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Atlético Tembetary 2–1 Martin Ledesma

Atlético Tembetary beat Martin Ledesma 2-1 in Division Intermedia on September 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Luís Alfonso Giagni in Asunción.