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Martin Ledesma vs 24 de Setiembre — Division Intermedia 2018

Martin Ledesma
Martin Ledesma
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
24 de Setiembre
24 de Setiembre
7/15/2023Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 17Estadio Enrique Soler

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Martin Ledesma44%
×Draw27%
24 de Setiembre30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Martin Ledesma
1.39
24 de Setiembre
1.10

Martin Ledesma creates 26% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 15 away

creates per match

Martin Ledesma
0.98
24 de Setiembre
1.00

allows per match

Martin Ledesma
1.21
24 de Setiembre
1.80

finishing

Martin Ledesma+0.00on par
24 de Setiembre+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martin Ledesma ↓

24 de Setiembre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Martin Ledesma or draw
70%
Martin Ledesma or 24 de Setiembre
73%
Draw or 24 de Setiembre
56%

Winning margin

Martin Ledesma wins by 2+
21%
24 de Setiembre wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Martin Ledesma 1+ goals
75%
Martin Ledesma 2+ goals
40%
Martin Ledesma 3+ goals
16%
24 de Setiembre 1+ goals
67%
24 de Setiembre 2+ goals
30%
24 de Setiembre 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Martin Ledesma (draw refunded)
59%
24 de Setiembre (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Martin Ledesma at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.21 · 63 matches

24 de Setiembre away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Martin Ledesma attack 0.98 + 24 de Setiembre defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.39

24 de Setiembre attack 1.00 + Martin Ledesma defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Martin Ledesma scores more
44%
level
27%
24 de Setiembre scores more
30%

Martin Ledesma at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Martin Ledesma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Martin Ledesma vs 24 de Setiembre

Martin Ledesma beat 24 de Setiembre 2-1 in Division Intermedia on July 15, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Enrique Soler in Capiatá.