24 de Setiembre 2–1 Martin Ledesma: Result & Stats

24 de Setiembre

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Martin Ledesma

W. Pacheco 49'

J. Florencianez 11'

L. Galeano 14'

4/6/2023

Division Intermedia · Round 2Estadio Próculo Cortázar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

24 de Setiembre41%

×Draw26%

Martin Ledesma33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

24 de SetiembreExpected goals in this matchMartin Ledesma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.27

24 de Setiembre

1.44

Martin Ledesma

1.27

24 de Setiembre creates 13% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

1.53

creates per match

0.88

1.67

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

24 de Setiembre

1.53

Martin Ledesma

0.88

allows per match

24 de Setiembre

1.67

Martin Ledesma

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

24 de Setiembre+0.00on par

Martin Ledesma+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

24 de Setiembre ↓

Martin Ledesma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

24 de Setiembre or draw

67%

24 de Setiembre or Martin Ledesma

74%

Draw or Martin Ledesma

59%

Winning margin

24 de Setiembre wins by 2+

20%

Martin Ledesma wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

24 de Setiembre 1+ goals

76%

24 de Setiembre 2+ goals

42%

24 de Setiembre 3+ goals

18%

Martin Ledesma 1+ goals

72%

Martin Ledesma 2+ goals

36%

Martin Ledesma 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

24 de Setiembre (draw refunded)

55%

Martin Ledesma (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

24 de Setiembre at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Martin Ledesma away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

24 de Setiembre attack 1.53 + Martin Ledesma defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.44

Martin Ledesma attack 0.88 + 24 de Setiembre defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

24 de Setiembre scores more

41%

level

26%

Martin Ledesma scores more

33%

24 de Setiembre at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "24 de Setiembre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

J. Florencianez

14'

L. Galeano

49'

W. Pacheco

84'

C. Ayala

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff