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Martin Ledesma vs 12 de Junio VH — Division Intermedia 2018

Martin Ledesma
Martin Ledesma
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
12 de Junio VH
12 de Junio VH
8/28/2024Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 23Estadio Enrique Soler

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Martin Ledesma28%
×Draw30%
12 de Junio VH42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Martin Ledesma
0.91
12 de Junio VH
1.19

12 de Junio VH creates 31% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 38 away

creates per match

Martin Ledesma
0.98
12 de Junio VH
1.16

allows per match

Martin Ledesma
1.21
12 de Junio VH
0.84

finishing

Martin Ledesma+0.00on par
12 de Junio VH+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martin Ledesma ↓

12 de Junio VH →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Martin Ledesma or draw
58%
Martin Ledesma or 12 de Junio VH
70%
Draw or 12 de Junio VH
72%

Winning margin

Martin Ledesma wins by 2+
10%
12 de Junio VH wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Martin Ledesma 1+ goals
60%
Martin Ledesma 2+ goals
23%
Martin Ledesma 3+ goals
6%
12 de Junio VH 1+ goals
70%
12 de Junio VH 2+ goals
33%
12 de Junio VH 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Martin Ledesma (draw refunded)
40%
12 de Junio VH (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Martin Ledesma at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.21 · 63 matches

12 de Junio VH away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.84 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Martin Ledesma attack 0.98 + 12 de Junio VH defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.91

12 de Junio VH attack 1.16 + Martin Ledesma defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Martin Ledesma scores more
28%
level
30%
12 de Junio VH scores more
42%

12 de Junio VH at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "12 de Junio VH will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Martin Ledesma 1–1 12 de Junio VH

Martin Ledesma and 12 de Junio VH drew 1-1 in Division Intermedia on August 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Enrique Soler in Capiatá.