12 de Junio VH 0–1 Martin Ledesma: Result & Stats

12 de Junio VH

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Martin Ledesma

5/22/2024

Division Intermedia · Round 8Estadio Facundo de León Fossati

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

12 de Junio VH44%

×Draw28%

Martin Ledesma28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

12 de Junio VHExpected goals in this matchMartin Ledesma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.99

12 de Junio VH

1.33

Martin Ledesma

0.99

12 de Junio VH creates 34% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 61 away

1.33

creates per match

0.87

1.11

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

12 de Junio VH

1.33

Martin Ledesma

0.87

allows per match

12 de Junio VH

1.11

Martin Ledesma

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

12 de Junio VH+0.00on par

Martin Ledesma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

12 de Junio VH ↓

Martin Ledesma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

12 de Junio VH or draw

72%

12 de Junio VH or Martin Ledesma

72%

Draw or Martin Ledesma

56%

Winning margin

12 de Junio VH wins by 2+

21%

Martin Ledesma wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

12 de Junio VH 1+ goals

74%

12 de Junio VH 2+ goals

38%

12 de Junio VH 3+ goals

15%

Martin Ledesma 1+ goals

63%

Martin Ledesma 2+ goals

26%

Martin Ledesma 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

12 de Junio VH (draw refunded)

61%

Martin Ledesma (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

12 de Junio VH at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 36 matches

Martin Ledesma away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

12 de Junio VH attack 1.33 + Martin Ledesma defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Martin Ledesma attack 0.87 + 12 de Junio VH defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

12 de Junio VH scores more

44%

level

28%

Martin Ledesma scores more

28%

12 de Junio VH at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "12 de Junio VH will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff