Martigues 1–2 Estac Troyes: Result & Stats

Martigues

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Estac Troyes

2/7/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 22Stade Francis Turcan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Martigues24%

×Draw28%

Estac Troyes48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MartiguesExpected goals in this matchEstac Troyes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.87

1.36

Martigues

0.87

Estac Troyes

1.36

Estac Troyes creates 56% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 105 away

0.76

creates per match

1.14

1.59

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Martigues

0.76

Estac Troyes

1.14

allows per match

Martigues

1.59

Estac Troyes

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Martigues+0.00on par

Estac Troyes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martigues ↓

Estac Troyes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–115%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Martigues or draw

52%

Martigues or Estac Troyes

72%

Draw or Estac Troyes

76%

Winning margin

Martigues wins by 2+

8%

Estac Troyes wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Martigues 1+ goals

58%

Martigues 2+ goals

22%

Martigues 3+ goals

6%

Estac Troyes 1+ goals

74%

Estac Troyes 2+ goals

39%

Estac Troyes 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Martigues (draw refunded)

33%

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Martigues at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Estac Troyes away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.98 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Martigues attack 0.76 + Estac Troyes defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.87

Estac Troyes attack 1.14 + Martigues defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Martigues scores more

24%

level

28%

Estac Troyes scores more

48%

Estac Troyes at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Estac Troyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff