Estac Troyes 4–0 Martigues: Result & Stats

Estac Troyes

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Martigues

12/13/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 16Stade de l'Aube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Estac Troyes53%

×Draw25%

Martigues22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estac TroyesExpected goals in this matchMartigues

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.96

Estac Troyes

1.64

Martigues

0.96

Estac Troyes creates 71% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 17 away

1.57

creates per match

0.94

0.98

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Estac Troyes

1.57

Martigues

0.94

allows per match

Estac Troyes

0.98

Martigues

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estac Troyes+0.00on par

Martigues+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estac Troyes ↓

Martigues →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Estac Troyes or draw

78%

Estac Troyes or Martigues

75%

Draw or Martigues

47%

Winning margin

Estac Troyes wins by 2+

29%

Martigues wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Estac Troyes 1+ goals

81%

Estac Troyes 2+ goals

49%

Estac Troyes 3+ goals

23%

Martigues 1+ goals

62%

Martigues 2+ goals

25%

Martigues 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)

71%

Martigues (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estac Troyes at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.98 · 106 matches

Martigues away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estac Troyes attack 1.57 + Martigues defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.64

Martigues attack 0.94 + Estac Troyes defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Estac Troyes scores more

53%

level

25%

Martigues scores more

22%

Estac Troyes at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Estac Troyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff