Martfűi LSE 4–2 Honvéd II: Result & Stats

Martfűi LSE

FT

4 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Honvéd II

3/3/2024

NB III - Southeast · Southeast - 18Martfű LSE Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Martfűi LSE33%

×Draw23%

Honvéd II44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Martfűi LSEExpected goals in this matchHonvéd II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.73

Martfűi LSE

1.46

Honvéd II

1.73

Honvéd II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 45 away

1.34

creates per match

1.24

2.23

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Martfűi LSE

1.34

Honvéd II

1.24

allows per match

Martfűi LSE

2.23

Honvéd II

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Martfűi LSE+0.00on par

Honvéd II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martfűi LSE ↓

Honvéd II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Martfűi LSE or draw

56%

Martfűi LSE or Honvéd II

77%

Draw or Honvéd II

67%

Winning margin

Martfűi LSE wins by 2+

15%

Honvéd II wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Martfűi LSE 1+ goals

77%

Martfűi LSE 2+ goals

43%

Martfűi LSE 3+ goals

18%

Honvéd II 1+ goals

82%

Honvéd II 2+ goals

52%

Honvéd II 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Martfűi LSE (draw refunded)

43%

Honvéd II (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Martfűi LSE at home — creates 1.34, concedes 2.23 · 44 matches

Honvéd II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.58 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Martfűi LSE attack 1.34 + Honvéd II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.46

Honvéd II attack 1.24 + Martfűi LSE defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Martfűi LSE scores more

33%

level

23%

Honvéd II scores more

44%

Honvéd II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Honvéd II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff