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Honvéd II vs Martfűi LSE — NB III - Southeast 2023

Honvéd II
Honvéd II
FT
5 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Martfűi LSE
Martfűi LSE
D. Hancz 53'
V. Petrók 44', 17'
S. Ihrig-Farkas 38'
T. Balázs 31'
8/27/2025NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 5Honvéd MFA Utánpótlás Központ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Honvéd II55%
×Draw22%
Martfűi LSE23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Honvéd II
1.98
Martfűi LSE
1.20

Honvéd II creates 65% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Honvéd II
1.78
Martfűi LSE
1.07

allows per match

Honvéd II
1.33
Martfűi LSE
2.18

finishing

Honvéd II+0.00on par
Martfűi LSE+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Honvéd II ↓

Martfűi LSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Honvéd II or draw
77%
Honvéd II or Martfűi LSE
78%
Draw or Martfűi LSE
45%

Winning margin

Honvéd II wins by 2+
32%
Martfűi LSE wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Honvéd II 1+ goals
86%
Honvéd II 2+ goals
59%
Honvéd II 3+ goals
31%
Martfűi LSE 1+ goals
70%
Martfűi LSE 2+ goals
34%
Martfűi LSE 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Honvéd II (draw refunded)
71%
Martfűi LSE (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Honvéd II at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

Martfűi LSE away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.18 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Honvéd II attack 1.78 + Martfűi LSE defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.98

Martfűi LSE attack 1.07 + Honvéd II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Honvéd II scores more
55%
level
22%
Martfűi LSE scores more
23%

Honvéd II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Honvéd II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
V. Petrók↳ S. Ihrig-Farkas
31'
T. Balázs↳ B. Varga
38'
S. Ihrig-Farkas
44'
V. Petrók
53'
D. Hancz↳ S. Ihrig-Farkas
Honvéd
Martfűi
G. Kovács
Manager: G. Kovács
Z. Koncz
Manager: Z. Koncz

Match Recap: Honvéd II vs Martfűi LSE

Honvéd II beat Martfűi LSE 5-0 in NB III - Southeast on August 27, 2025.

Goals: V. Petrók (17', 44'), T. Balázs (31'), S. Ihrig-Farkas (38'), D. Hancz (53').

The match was played at Honvéd MFA Utánpótlás Központ in Budapest.