Martfűi LSE 0–3 ESMTK: Result & Stats

Martfűi LSE

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

ESMTK

5/25/2025

NB III - Southeast · Southeast - 30Martfű LSE Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Martfűi LSE20%

×Draw20%

ESMTK60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Martfűi LSEExpected goals in this matchESMTK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

2.26

Martfűi LSE

1.25

ESMTK

2.26

ESMTK creates 81% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 45 away

1.34

creates per match

2.29

2.23

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Martfűi LSE

1.34

ESMTK

2.29

allows per match

Martfűi LSE

2.23

ESMTK

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Martfűi LSE+0.00on par

ESMTK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martfűi LSE ↓

ESMTK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Martfűi LSE or draw

40%

Martfűi LSE or ESMTK

80%

Draw or ESMTK

80%

Winning margin

Martfűi LSE wins by 2+

8%

ESMTK wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Martfűi LSE 1+ goals

71%

Martfűi LSE 2+ goals

36%

Martfűi LSE 3+ goals

13%

ESMTK 1+ goals

89%

ESMTK 2+ goals

66%

ESMTK 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Martfűi LSE (draw refunded)

25%

ESMTK (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Martfűi LSE at home — creates 1.34, concedes 2.23 · 44 matches

ESMTK away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.16 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Martfűi LSE attack 1.34 + ESMTK defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

ESMTK attack 2.29 + Martfűi LSE defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Martfűi LSE scores more

20%

level

20%

ESMTK scores more

60%

ESMTK at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "ESMTK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff