ESMTK 2–1 Martfűi LSE: Result & Stats

ESMTK

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Martfűi LSE

9/7/2025

NB III - Southeast · Southeast - 7ESMTK Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

ESMTK68%

×Draw19%

Martfűi LSE13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ESMTKExpected goals in this matchMartfűi LSE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

0.83

ESMTK

2.20

Martfűi LSE

0.83

ESMTK creates 165% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

2.22

creates per match

1.07

0.60

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

ESMTK

2.22

Martfűi LSE

1.07

allows per match

ESMTK

0.60

Martfűi LSE

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ESMTK+0.00on par

Martfűi LSE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ESMTK ↓

Martfűi LSE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

ESMTK or draw

87%

ESMTK or Martfűi LSE

81%

Draw or Martfűi LSE

32%

Winning margin

ESMTK wins by 2+

44%

Martfűi LSE wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

ESMTK 1+ goals

89%

ESMTK 2+ goals

64%

ESMTK 3+ goals

37%

Martfűi LSE 1+ goals

56%

Martfűi LSE 2+ goals

20%

Martfűi LSE 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

ESMTK (draw refunded)

84%

Martfűi LSE (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ESMTK at home — creates 2.22, concedes 0.60 · 45 matches

Martfűi LSE away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.18 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ESMTK attack 2.22 + Martfűi LSE defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.20

Martfűi LSE attack 1.07 + ESMTK defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

ESMTK scores more

68%

level

19%

Martfűi LSE scores more

13%

ESMTK at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "ESMTK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff