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Martfűi LSE vs Dabas — NB III - Southeast 2023

Martfűi LSE
Martfűi LSE
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Dabas
Dabas
4/6/2025NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 23Martfű LSE Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Martfűi LSE30%
×Draw23%
Dabas47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Martfűi LSE
1.45
Dabas
1.85

Dabas creates 28% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 45 away

creates per match

Martfűi LSE
1.34
Dabas
1.47

allows per match

Martfűi LSE
2.23
Dabas
1.56

finishing

Martfűi LSE+0.00on par
Dabas+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martfűi LSE ↓

Dabas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Martfűi LSE or draw
53%
Martfűi LSE or Dabas
77%
Draw or Dabas
70%

Winning margin

Martfűi LSE wins by 2+
14%
Dabas wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Martfűi LSE 1+ goals
77%
Martfűi LSE 2+ goals
42%
Martfűi LSE 3+ goals
18%
Dabas 1+ goals
84%
Dabas 2+ goals
55%
Dabas 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Martfűi LSE (draw refunded)
39%
Dabas (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Martfűi LSE at home — creates 1.34, concedes 2.23 · 44 matches

Dabas away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Martfűi LSE attack 1.34 + Dabas defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.45

Dabas attack 1.47 + Martfűi LSE defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Martfűi LSE scores more
30%
level
23%
Dabas scores more
47%

Dabas at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dabas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Martfűi LSE vs Dabas

Dabas beat Martfűi LSE 3-1 in NB III - Southeast on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Martfű LSE Sporttelep in Martfű.