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Dabas vs Martfűi LSE — NB III - Southeast 2023

Dabas
Dabas
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Martfűi LSE
Martfűi LSE
10/26/2025NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 13FC Dabas Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Dabas45%
×Draw24%
Martfűi LSE32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dabas
1.68
Martfűi LSE
1.38

Dabas creates 22% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Dabas
1.18
Martfűi LSE
1.07

allows per match

Dabas
1.69
Martfűi LSE
2.18

finishing

Dabas+0.00on par
Martfűi LSE+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dabas ↓

Martfűi LSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dabas or draw
68%
Dabas or Martfűi LSE
76%
Draw or Martfűi LSE
55%

Winning margin

Dabas wins by 2+
23%
Martfűi LSE wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dabas 1+ goals
81%
Dabas 2+ goals
50%
Dabas 3+ goals
24%
Martfűi LSE 1+ goals
75%
Martfűi LSE 2+ goals
40%
Martfűi LSE 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Dabas (draw refunded)
58%
Martfűi LSE (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dabas at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.69 · 45 matches

Martfűi LSE away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.18 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dabas attack 1.18 + Martfűi LSE defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.68

Martfűi LSE attack 1.07 + Dabas defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dabas scores more
45%
level
24%
Martfűi LSE scores more
32%

Dabas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dabas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southeast: Dabas 1–3 Martfűi LSE

Martfűi LSE beat Dabas 3-1 in NB III - Southeast on October 26, 2025.

The match was played at FC Dabas Sporttelep in Dabas.