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Martfűi LSE vs Csep-Gól — NB III - Southeast 2023

Martfűi LSE
Martfűi LSE
FT
4 – 5
Csep-Gól
Csep-Gól
11/3/2024NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 14Martfű LSE Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Martfűi LSE40%
×Draw24%
Csep-Gól36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Martfűi LSE
1.60
Csep-Gól
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 15 away

creates per match

Martfűi LSE
1.34
Csep-Gól
0.80

allows per match

Martfűi LSE
2.23
Csep-Gól
1.87

finishing

Martfűi LSE+0.00on par
Csep-Gól+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martfűi LSE ↓

Csep-Gól →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Martfűi LSE or draw
64%
Martfűi LSE or Csep-Gól
76%
Draw or Csep-Gól
60%

Winning margin

Martfűi LSE wins by 2+
20%
Csep-Gól wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Martfűi LSE 1+ goals
80%
Martfűi LSE 2+ goals
47%
Martfűi LSE 3+ goals
22%
Csep-Gól 1+ goals
78%
Csep-Gól 2+ goals
45%
Csep-Gól 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Martfűi LSE (draw refunded)
52%
Csep-Gól (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Martfűi LSE at home — creates 1.34, concedes 2.23 · 44 matches

Csep-Gól away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Martfűi LSE attack 1.34 + Csep-Gól defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.60

Csep-Gól attack 0.80 + Martfűi LSE defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Martfűi LSE scores more
40%
level
24%
Csep-Gól scores more
36%

Martfűi LSE at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Martfűi LSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Martfűi LSE vs Csep-Gól

Csep-Gól beat Martfűi LSE 5-4 in NB III - Southeast on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Martfű LSE Sporttelep in Martfű.