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Csep-Gól vs Martfűi LSE — NB III - Southeast 2023

Csep-Gól
Csep-Gól
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Martfűi LSE
Martfűi LSE
5/18/2025NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 29Béke téri Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Csep-Gól51%
×Draw23%
Martfűi LSE26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Csep-Gól
1.85
Martfűi LSE
1.27

Csep-Gól creates 46% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Csep-Gól
1.53
Martfűi LSE
1.07

allows per match

Csep-Gól
1.47
Martfűi LSE
2.18

finishing

Csep-Gól+0.00on par
Martfűi LSE+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Csep-Gól ↓

Martfűi LSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Csep-Gól or draw
74%
Csep-Gól or Martfűi LSE
77%
Draw or Martfűi LSE
49%

Winning margin

Csep-Gól wins by 2+
28%
Martfűi LSE wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Csep-Gól 1+ goals
84%
Csep-Gól 2+ goals
55%
Csep-Gól 3+ goals
28%
Martfűi LSE 1+ goals
72%
Martfűi LSE 2+ goals
36%
Martfűi LSE 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Csep-Gól (draw refunded)
66%
Martfűi LSE (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Csep-Gól at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Martfűi LSE away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.18 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Csep-Gól attack 1.53 + Martfűi LSE defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.85

Martfűi LSE attack 1.07 + Csep-Gól defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Csep-Gól scores more
51%
level
23%
Martfűi LSE scores more
26%

Csep-Gól at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Csep-Gól will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Csep-Gól vs Martfűi LSE

Martfűi LSE beat Csep-Gól 1-0 in NB III - Southeast on May 18, 2025.

The match was played at Béke téri Stadion in Budapest.