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Martfűi LSE vs BKV Előre — NB III - Southeast 2023

Martfűi LSE
Martfűi LSE
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
BKV Előre
BKV Előre
10/13/2024NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 11Martfű LSE Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Martfűi LSE33%
×Draw22%
BKV Előre44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Martfűi LSE
1.58
BKV Előre
1.85

BKV Előre creates 17% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 45 away

creates per match

Martfűi LSE
1.34
BKV Előre
1.47

allows per match

Martfűi LSE
2.23
BKV Előre
1.82

finishing

Martfűi LSE+0.00on par
BKV Előre+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martfűi LSE ↓

BKV Előre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Martfűi LSE or draw
56%
Martfűi LSE or BKV Előre
78%
Draw or BKV Előre
67%

Winning margin

Martfűi LSE wins by 2+
16%
BKV Előre wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Martfűi LSE 1+ goals
79%
Martfűi LSE 2+ goals
47%
Martfűi LSE 3+ goals
21%
BKV Előre 1+ goals
84%
BKV Előre 2+ goals
55%
BKV Előre 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Martfűi LSE (draw refunded)
43%
BKV Előre (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Martfűi LSE at home — creates 1.34, concedes 2.23 · 44 matches

BKV Előre away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Martfűi LSE attack 1.34 + BKV Előre defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.58

BKV Előre attack 1.47 + Martfűi LSE defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Martfűi LSE scores more
33%
level
22%
BKV Előre scores more
44%

BKV Előre at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "BKV Előre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southeast: Martfűi LSE 3–2 BKV Előre

Martfűi LSE beat BKV Előre 3-2 in NB III - Southeast on October 13, 2024.

The match was played at Martfű LSE Sporttelep in Martfű.